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Italy vs France Prediction: Can the Azzurri Stop Unbeaten Les Bleus in Milan?

ChekiOdds Desk ·

Italy face unbeaten France at San Siro in a major Nations League clash. Can the hosts exploit Mbappé's absence?

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Competition: UEFA Nations League, Group A1

Date: Thursday, 12 November 2026

Kickoff: 10:45 PM EAT (GMT+3)

Venue: San Siro, Milan

Italy and France meet in a heavyweight Nations League fixture in Milan. France entered this international window with 10 points from four matches and Italy with seven. A French victory would secure the visitors' place in the quarter-finals.

Italy's improving form

Italy have recovered from their opening defeat to Belgium and shown greater control in midfield and more reliable defensive organisation. A 1-1 draw away to France in October demonstrated that the Azzurri can compete with their group leaders.

Playing at San Siro gives Roberto Mancini's team another advantage. Italy should aim to restrict the space between midfield and defence, while looking for opportunities through quick changes of play.

France face an attacking challenge

France remain unbeaten in this campaign under Zinedine Zidane, but captain Kylian Mbappé will miss the trip to Italy after reporting hamstring discomfort. The absence of their star forward changes the visitors' attacking options.

France still have creativity and pace, including the ability to threaten through Michael Olise and other attacking players. Italy cannot afford to assume that Mbappé's absence will make the French attack harmless.

ChekiOdds predictions

  • Main prediction: Under 3.5 total goals
  • Alternative pick: France or draw (X2)
  • More aggressive goals pick: Under 2.5 goals
  • Predicted score: Italy 1-1 France

Final verdict

This contest could be decided by tactical details rather than relentless attacking pressure. Italy's home advantage should help them compete, while France's strength in depth keeps the visitors dangerous. A closely contested draw is our predicted outcome, with fewer than four goals the more cautious selection.

Sources: UEFA Nations League fixtures and Mbappé injury update.

Predictions are editorial opinions, not guarantees. Check confirmed starting lineups and bookmaker odds before kickoff.